基于高斯两步移动搜寻法的村镇避难场所可达性研究

避难场所可达性是指避难场所与受灾居民之间的通达性,即灾害发生时,避难人员通过避难疏散通道到达避难场所的难易程度,是评价避难场所布局合理性的重要指标。本研究结合高斯两步移动搜寻法和网络分析法,从供需双向出发对村镇地区避难场所进行可达性分析。2种方法的结合,既充分考虑了需求点与设施点的相互作用,又充分考虑了设施点的吸引力随距离的衰减关系,并基于实际道路,以步行疏散时间作为搜索半径,降低了传统研究中因忽略供需间相互作用及实际距离而引起的可达性结果的误差。最后,以神农架松柏镇区为例,验证该方法的实际应用价值。结果表明,该方法能够有效测定村镇地区避难场所的空间可达性,同时,基于GIS软件可以直观地揭示研究区域内避难场所可达性空间分布差异。该方法可为制定科学的村镇防灾减灾规划提供方法支持。     

Analysis of the exoplanet containing system Kepler-13

We have applied the close binary system analysis program WinFitter, with its physically detailed fitting function, to an intensive study of the complex multiple system Kepler-13 using photometry data from all 13 short cadence quarters downloaded from the NASA Exoplanet Archive (NEA) (http://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu). The data-point error of our normalized, phase-sequenced and binned (380 points per bin: 0.00025 phase interval) flux values, at 14 ppm, allows the model’s specification for the mean reference flux level of the system to a precision better than 1 ppm. Our photometrically derived values for the mass and radius of KOI13.01 are \(6.8\pm0.6~\mbox{M}_{\mathrm{J}}\) and \(1.44\pm0.04~\mbox{R}_{\mathrm{J}}\). The star has a radius of \(1.67\pm0.05~\mbox{R}_{\odot}\). Our modelling sets the mean of the orbital inclination \(i\) at \(94.35\pm0.14^{\circ}\), with the star’s mean precession angle \(\phi_{p}\)—\(49.1\pm5.0^{\circ}\) and obliquity \(\theta_{o}\)\(67.9 \pm 3.0^{\circ}\), though there are known ambiguities about the sense in which such angles are measured.Our findings did not confirm secular variation in the transit modelling parameters greater than their full correlated errors, as argued by previous authors, when each quarter’s data was best-fitted with a determinable parameter set without prejudice. However, if we accept that most of the parameters remain the same for each transit, then we could confirm a small but steady diminution in the cosine of the orbital inclination over the 17 quarter timespan. This is accompanied by a slight increase of the star’s precession angle (less negative), but with no significant change in the obliquity of its spin axis. There are suggestions of a history of strong dynamical interaction with a highly distorted planet rotating in a 3:2 resonance with its revolution, together with a tidal lag of \(\sim30~\mbox{deg}\). The mean precessional period is derived to be about 1000 y, but at the present time the motion of the star’s rotation axis appears to be supporting the gravitational torque, rather than providing the balance against it that would be expected over long periods of time.The planet has a small but detectable backwarming effect on the star, which helps to explain the difference in brightness just after transit and just before occultation eclipses. In assessing these findings it is recognized that sources of uncertainty remain, notably with possible inherent micropulsational effects, variations from other components of the multiple star, stellar activity, differential rotation and the neglect of higher order terms (than \(r_{1}^{5}\)) in the fitting function, where \(r_{1}\) is the ratio of the radius of the star to the mean orbital separation of planet and host star.     

Element sets for high-order Poincaré mapping of perturbed Keplerian motion

The propagation and Poincaré mapping of perturbed Keplerian motion is a key topic in Celestial Mechanics and Astrodynamics, e.g., to study the stability of orbits or design bounded relative trajectories. The high-order transfer map (HOTM) method enables efficient mapping of perturbed Keplerian orbits using the high-order Taylor expansion of a Poincaré or stroboscopic map. The HOTM is only accurate close to the expansion point and therefore the number of revolutions for which the map is accurate tends to be limited. The proper selection of coordinates is of key importance for improving the performance of the HOTM method. In this paper, we investigate the use of different element sets for expressing the high-order map in order to find the coordinates that perform best in terms of accuracy. A new set of elements is introduced that enables extremely accurate mapping of the state, even for high eccentricities and higher-order zonal perturbations. Finally, the high-order map is shown to be very useful for the determination and study of fixed points and center manifolds of Poincaré maps.     

山东省地面沉降监测与防治工作进展

近年来,山东省地面沉降监测与防治工作取得了重要进展,初步建立了以二等水准路线、全球定位系统(GPS)、基岩标分层标和地下水监测为基础的"四网合一"地面沉降监测体系,INSAR监测实现了山东全省覆盖。监测成果显示,山东省地面沉降主要位于东营市广饶县、滨州市博兴县、聊城市茌平县,沉降速率呈加快趋势,造成建筑物地基下沉、房屋开裂、地下管道破损等一系列地质环境问题。     

Explicit stress–strain equations for modeling frictional materials

In this paper, a comprehensive study on simulating the shearing behavior of frictional materials is performed. A set of two explicit equations, describing the relationship among the shear stress ratio and the distortional strain and the volumetric strain, are formulated independently. The equations contain three stress parameters and three strain parameters and another parameter representing the nonuniformity of stress and strain during softening. All the parameters have clear physical significance and can be determined experimentally. It is demonstrated that the proposed equations have the capacity of simulating the complicated shearing behavior of many types of frictional materials including geomaterials. The proposed equations are used to simulate the stress–strain behavior for 27 frictional materials with 98 tests. These materials include soft and stiff clays in both reconstituted and structured states, silicon sands and calcareous sands, silts, compacted fill materials, volcanic soils, decomposed granite soils, cemented soils (both artificially and naturally cemented), partially saturated soils, ballast, rocks, reinforced soils, tire chips, sugar, wheat, and rapeseed. It has been demonstrated that the proposed explicit constitutive equations have the capacity to capture accurately the shearing behavior of frictional materials both qualitatively and quantitatively. A study on model parameters has been performed.     

Determination of Non-gravitational Effects in the Motion of Near-Sun Objects 321P, 322P, 323P,and 342P

At the beginning of this century, the SOHO space observatory discovered near-Sun comets with perihelion distances q ≈ 0.05 AU, which remained observable over several close encounters with the Sun. This became one of the surprises in studying the small bodies of the Solar System. Currently, there are objects that have already been observed in four (342P) and five (321P, 322P, and 323P) apparitions. In the present work, the estimates of nongravitational effects are obtained for these objects based on the pair-wise linkage of the apparitions. The calculations show that the observations of these objects are poorly represented if solely the gravitational forces are considered. The magnitude of nongravitational effects in the semimajor axis noticeably changes with time. The motion of all comets is significantly affected by the components of nongravitational forces that are perpendicular to the orbital plane.     

Wetlands and low-gradient topography are associated with longer hydrologic transit times in Precambrian Shield headwater catchments

The estimation of hydrologic transit times in a catchment provides insights into the integrated effects of water storage, mixing dynamics, and runoff generation processes. There has been limited effort to estimate transit times in southern boreal Precambrian Shield landscapes, which are characteristically heterogeneous with surface cover including till, thin soils, bedrock outcrops, and depressional wetland features that play contrasting hydrologic roles. This study presents approximately 3.5 years of precipitation and streamflow water isotope data and estimates mean transit times (MTTs) and the young water fraction (p_y) across six small catchments in the Muskoka-Haliburton region of south-central Ontario. The main objectives were to define a typical range of MTTs for headwater catchments in this region and to identify landscape variables that best explain differences in MTTs/p_y using airborne light detection and ranging and digital terrain analysis. Of the transit time distributions, the two parallel linear reservoir and gamma distributions best describe the hydrology of these catchments, particularly because of their ability to capture more extreme changes related to events such as snowmelt. The estimated MTTs, regardless of the modelling approach or distribution used, are positively associated with the percent wetland area and negatively with mean slope in the catchments. In this landscape, low-gradient features such as wetlands increase catchment scale water storage when antecedent conditions are dryer and decrease transit times when there is a moisture surplus, which plausibly explains the increases in MTTs and mean annual runoff from catchments with significant coverage of these landscape features.     

Changes in hillslope hydrology in a perched,shallow soil system due to clearcutting and residual biomass removal

Sustainable fuels legislation and volatility in energy prices have put additional pressures on the forestry sector to intensify the harvesting of biomass for “advanced biofuel” production. To better understand how residual biomass removal after harvest affects forest hydrology in relatively low slope terrain, a Before-After-Control-Impact (BACI) study was conducted in the USDA Forest Service's Marcell Experimental Forest, Minnesota, USA. Hydrological measurements were made from 2010–2013 on a forested hillslope that was divided into three treatment blocks, where one block was harvested and residual biomass removed (Biomass Removed), the second was harvested and residual biomass left (Biomass Left), and the last block was left as an Unharvested Control. The pre-harvest period (2 years) was 2010–11 and post-harvest (2 years) was 2012–13. Water table elevation at the upslope and downslope position, subsurface runoff, and soil moisture were measured between May–November. Mixed effect statistical models were used to compare both the before-after and “control” treatment ratios (ratios between harvested hillslopes and the Unharvested Control hillslope). Subsurface runoff significantly increased (p < .05) at both harvested hillslopes but to a greater degree on the Biomass Left hillslope. Greater subsurface runoff volumes at both harvested hillslopes were driven by substantial increases during fall, with additional significant increases during summer on the Biomass Left hillslope. The hydrological connectivity, inferred from event runoff ratios, increased due to harvesting at both hillslopes but only significantly on the Biomass Left hillslope. The winter harvest minimized soil disturbance, resulting in no change to the effective hydraulic conductivity distribution with depth. Thus, the observed hydrological changes were driven by increased effective precipitation and decreased evapotranspiration, increasing the duration that both harvested hillslopes were hydrologically active. The harvesting of residual biomass appears to lessen hydrological connectivity relative to leaving residual biomass on the hillslope, potentially decreasing downstream hydrological impacts of similar forestry operations.     

Colorful Planets,Cometary Tail,and Nuclear Winter

After the 1967 flight of the Venera-4 automatic interplanetary station (AIS), the study of planetary atmospheres became one of the key areas of scientific research at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAPh), USSR Academy of Sciences. The goal of the Venera-4 mission was to deliver a descent vehicle into the atmosphere of Venus and study the physical parameters and chemical composition of the atmosphere. IAPh scientists published several articles on the analysis of these measurements, with A.M. Obukhov himself directly involved in writing some of these articles. An analysis of the properties of the Martian surface and atmosphere from the data of the Mars-2, Mars-3, and Mariner-9 missions in November–December 1971 set the stage for a series of studies on the atmospheric effects of Martian dust storms. Based on the study of the atmospheres of terrestrial planets, IAPh scientists developed a simple model for the nuclear winter phenomenon, i.e., a long-term cooling due to massive fires caused by nuclear explosions. Obukhov took a keen interest in this subject and participated in the publication of review articles on the possible atmospheric and climatic effects of a nuclear war. In another publication, Obukhov and his coauthors provided a theoretical analysis of the possible causes for the tail from Halley’s comet ripping off, as was observed in January 1986. The present article gives a brief overview of the IAPh works on Solar System research and on the possible consequences of a nuclear conflict, which were published in the 1960s–1980s while Obukhov was alive.